The Tikrit Front: Not so “Rosy” as Claimed by Obama Administration

The IRGC-Qods Force-led operation has proven to be every bit the slow, hard slog as we assessed it would be, with the IA and the Qods Force-backed Shia militias struggling to advance on Saturday to the Tikrit-area towns of al-slam and al-Dour (Ad-Dawr). Much of this has to do with the VBIEDs, IEDs and other obstacles the Islamic State (IS) fighters in the area set up in anticipation for GEN Suleimani’s campaign. Earlier today (Sunday as of this writing) the IA reported that they finally took the small town of al-Dour, although it was a costly victory with the amount of casualties they took in the effort – and the real fight for Tikrit hasn’t even begun.

Iraqi troops, militia make advances near Tikrit

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Iraqi troops, militia advance towards Tikrit

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View of the fighting

Source: Reuters

We’re already beginning to see the inflamed sectarian tensions that we warned about in previous articles popping up in various international media outlets (but not the American media – not that we’re surprised). al-Arabiya’s Abdulrahman al-Rashed is on point in his analysis of whatever gains the IA makes in their Saladin Province campaign being short-term. He hit the nail on the head when he pointed out that the heavy Qods Force and Shia militia involvement in the operation is going to galvanize the opposition to what the Sunni demographic views as an “Iranian puppet regime” – which we must say there’s a great deal of truth to those suspicions. We fear that the reports we’re getting back from our sources in the country are indicators that the Shia militias may have already started to “depopulate” the areas in and around Tikrit – a purging of Sunni influence. We’ve heard similar stories in parts of Diyala Province that had large concentrations of Sunni civilians. This is disturbing for the following reasons:

– The increased reliance on the Shia militias are serious red-flags that the IA simply doesn’t have the manpower to conduct sustained offensive operations and maintain a hold on the territory they do manage so seize. They also had a much harder time trying to take small towns like Khan al-Baghdadi and al-Dour than they should’ve with the size of the force they used in the operation – another troubling sign that indicates the real fights that have yet to take place in Tikrit, Hawijah, Bayji, Mosul and Fallujah will not have the positive outcome that the Obama administration is selling to the American people.

Shia militias launching rockets at IS positions in the Tikrit-area

Source: Reuters

– When they turn over seized terrain to the Shia militias, the locals immediately turn on them because the militias don’t discriminate between IS and the civilian population – to them, ALL SUNNIS ARE THE ENEMY. You simply can’t wage an effective campaign with this mindset and in the end will only create more enemies. This will especially be the case in al-Dour – the home of Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri. We predict the civilians of this town will face the brunt of the post-combat hostilities from the Shia militias because of the al-Douri’s family and fellow tribesmen living in the area.

Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri joined forces with IS and threw the full support of the New Baath Party (NBP) behind Baghadi’s “Caliphate” – which is the reason so many Saddam-era officers are in the IS ranks

Source: globalsecurity.org

Tikrit igniting sectarian war in Iraq

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Qods Force-Led Assault Force Meets Heavy Resistance in Tikrit

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ISIS Shaping Operations Against IA Blunts Mosul OP Before it Starts

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Incoherent Strategy Delays Mosul Offensive, Administration Touts Hashtag Victory

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IA Struggling to Avoid Collapse on Multiple Fronts – Mosul OP in Danger of Failing

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GEN Dempsey has foolishly said that he expects the joint-IA/Qods Force campaign in Northern Iraq to be a “success,” merely parroting what the Obama administration’s Marie Harf and Jen Psaki repeat day after day in their press conferences. Unfortunately, their rosy picture doesn’t mirror the reality on the ground for the reasons mentioned above. This all goes back to the Baghdad Belts Strategy that we’ve talked about previously in “Fortess Baghdad Part II” and “Defeating the Islamic State.” In addition to the fact that the increased Qods Force/Shia proxy involvement is pouring gasoline on the already lit sectarian fire, the Iraqi military’s resources are being stretched to the breaking point. As we stated in our piece titled “Qods Force-Led Assault Force Meets Heavy Resistance in Tikrit,” the US military isn’t providing adequate air support (despite Obama administration claims), meaning an already stressed Iraqi air capability is about to be stretched even further. There’s no way they can sustain the current OP-Tempo, so they will likely need the Iranians to increase their armed-UAV missions and possibly manned airstrikes like what we saw in Diyala during the Jalula Campaign.

Dempsey optimistic about outcome of Tikrit battle

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Taking back Tikrit and Mosul from Islamic State could make life worse for residents

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Fortress Baghdad Part II

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Defeating the Islamic State

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Iranian Airstrikes in Iraq

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Qods Force UAV OPs Part II

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Qods Force UAV OPs

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GEN Dempsey: Every bit as clueless as Marie Harf and DoS

Source: Bloomberg

Meanwhile people are getting spun up about IS hanging people in Hawijah – but that’s not what they should be looking at there. What people should be paying close attention to here are the reinforcements being sent to the town to assist in defending the surrounding area. As we’ve stated in previous articles, IS’ strategy is to stand and fight in Bayji, Tikrit and Hawijah in order to grind up the ISOF and Qods Force personnel that are leading the offensive. Each area is critical to IS’ defense of Mosul as each location enables Baghdadi’s followers to launch attacks to disrupt the IA’s lines of communication (LOC) – which was one of the primary reasons for the Mosul offensive being delayed. We know that personnel from Ar-Raqqa have been sent to Hawijah fairly recently, as suggested by the presence of the notorious Abu al-Rahman, who if you recall appeared in pictures last summer posing with the severed heads of fallen Syrian Soldiers. That Mosul operation can’t occur until Bayji, Tikrit, Hawijah and the Zaab Triangle as a whole are cleared and held. Unfortunately, the IA doesn’t have the manpower to do this nor will entrusting the task of holding seized territory to the Shia militias lead to the desired outcome.

ISIS fortifies Hawija for Tikrit aftermath

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Welcome to Hell: ISIS hang bodies of ‘soldiers’ from entrance to the city where Syrian troops were paraded through streets in cages

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The recent hangings in Hawijah

Source: The ISIS Study Group

Rahman posing with the severed heads of Syrian Soldiers in Ar-Raqqa

Source: The Daily Mail

As much as we’d like for IS to be driven out of Northern Iraq, the current claims being made by the Obama administration simply don’t mirror what’s actually happening on the ground. If anything, things are much worse now than they ever were with the Qods Force in the lead. This isn’t the “positive development” that GEN Dempsey was crowing about because the people who are being affected the most isn’t IS – its the Sunni civilian population who aren’t involved in the combat themselves but are caught in the cross-hairs. The GOI should be trying to get those people on their side, but that isn’t happening as long as the locals see Shia militias and their Qods Force embeds harassing them and treating them like IS fighters. We’ve been hearing from several sources that this is already happening in Diyala and Anbar, so its safe to say that Saladin won’t be much different. If anything, the civilians will get it much worse due to the Tikrit-area being the home of many prominent former regime types – many of which are also currently fighting alongside IS against government forces. So as you can see, IS’ Baghdad Belts strategy of further inflaming sectarian tensions and building relationships with the local Sunni communities who feel threatened by Iranian influence is alive and well. Also keep in mind that the real fight in Tikrit itself hasn’t even begun. The Obama administration may view the Iranian regime as the “lesser of two evils,” but in truth they’re no different than IS – and like IS, they also have designs against American interests.