New Cold War

Anxious about Russia’s intentions, Eastern European countries fear that Obama is about to surrender to Putin. I discuss this on the John Batchelor Radio Show (9 min). The article I referred to:

Countering Russia’s Strategic Maskirovka

By Professor Dr Julian Lindley-French, Senior Fellow, Institute of Statecraft

Riga, Latvia. 24 September. Power and freedom speak with a clarity and eloquence that is matched only by history here in Latvia. Tonight I will address NATO commanders with a speech entitled “Countering Strategic Maskirovka”. I coined the term Strategic Maskirovka because it seemed to me terms such as hybrid or ambiguous warfare are far too limited and too military to describe contemporary Russian ambition, strategy and actions.

Rather, Moscow has adapted its traditional art of military deception (maskirovka) into a strategic campaign from the head of state down in a bid to exploit the many divisions within Europe and the wider West and offset Russia’s many weaknesses. Strange then that in the past fortnight Russia suggests it is open to partnership in the struggle against ISIS and despatched upwards of fifty combat aircraft to Syria to reinforce the point. What is Moscow up to?

In fact, Russia’s actions over the past fortnight or so all conform to the tenets and goals of strategic maskirovka, including the forced removal of a hard-line separatist leader from ‘office’ in eastern Ukraine. The aims implicit in Russian strategy can be thus summarised:

• the creation of a contested but de facto ‘buffer zone’ to Russia’s south and east, and acceptance of a special sphere of Russian interest incorporating EU-NATO ‘neighbourhood’ state such as Latvia;
• to keep Europe and the wider West strategically-divided and politically off-balance,
• to establish de facto legitimacy for Russia’s conquest of Crimea and much of eastern Ukraine;
• and to use the threat of ISIS to establish a transactional strategic relationship with the US over the heads of the EU, NATO and most Europeans.

Any such ‘partnership’ would be fraught with dangers. Russia’s aim is to blur the distinction between influence, co-operation and competition by exploiting ‘strategic ambiguity; i.e. the refusal of many European leaders to face up to the reality of Kremlin’s strategy and actions. The very act of deception is an eloquent statement of influence designed to force leaders who want to look west to look instead east.

This goal is both implicit and explicit in recent ‘snap’ military exercises around this region all of which imply the political circumcision of the Baltics from the rest of Europe and the nuclear intimidation of allies who might seek to come to their rescue is a strategic end in and of itself. . . . (read the rest)

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Russians, Syrians, and Iranians setting up military coordination cell in Baghdad (centerforsecuritypolicy.org)

Russian, Syrian, and Iranian military commanders have set up a coordination cell in Baghdad to begin working with Iranian backed Shia militias fighting the Islamic state. US officials say it is unclear if the Iraqi government is involved, but the cell includes Russian generals. Russia has been building up their support in Syria, worrying U.S. policymakers who fear it could have a destabilizing effect. Moscow has fostered ties with both the Syrian and the Iraqi government. The coordination comes after Russia has greatly extended its role in Syria, moving armor and fighter aircraft into the country to back Syrian dictator Bashar Assad. U.S. officials say the Russians successfully camouflaged the fighter jets by hiding them among the increased flow of cargo flights, beginning September 18^th and 19th. Russian destroyers are also in position off the Mediterranean coast.