The Proud Kafir: Suleimani’s Gambit: Bid to Deal Crushing Blow to ISIS in Bayji

GEN Suleimani:
Source: talkhandak.com

Despite the fact that Ramadi – and all of Anbar – has been under Islamic State (IS) control since last year, the American public woke up to shock at seeing the remaining Iraqi Army forces flee the area. A 3,000-man Popular Mobilization Committee (PMC) force has been deployed to Habbaniyah for a counter-attack. As we stated in our piece “JV Team Solidifies Hold on Anbar With Ramadi Purging,” the IA is stretched thin and not capable of maintaining a high OP-Tempo in Anbar or Northern Iraq. Irgc-Qods Force commanding GEN Suleimani deployed the PMC force to help “stop the bleeding” in Anbar while he directs the main effort to the Saladin Province city of Bayji – which is a key logistical support hub for IS efforts in the country as it links the flow of supplies and reinforcements from Syria and Mosul to the front-lines further South. Although we had originally assessed that the PMC force sent to Anbar would be part of an effort to retake Ramadi, it now appears that they’re going to be conducting limited operations and bolstering the defenses in the remaining installations. Regarding the Bayji offensive, it may begin as early as next week.

“JV Team” Solidifies Hold on Anbar With Ramadi Purging
http://ift.tt/1doWRFn

We can’t say that we blame Suleimani for wanting to “go big” since its become painfully obvious that cowardice runs deep among his Arab counterparts in the Iraqi Army (IA). Over 400 prisoners were released from the Ramadi jail when IS overran the last IA installation. Many of the prisoners were IS fighters who had been detained over the course of the war as far back as a year ago. Now that they’re out, IS will be able to field all those tanks and assault vehicles they acquired after the IA from all the surrounding areas fled in panic. IS added insult to injury by quickly putting out propaganda though their IO channels “thanking President Obama” for providing all the weapons and vehicles that they now possess. This was done to show the Obama administration that Team Baghdadi isn’t scared of his “strategy” (we use the term very loosely here) and that Iran isn’t going to end the war anytime soon.

ISIS frees hundreds of extremists from Ramadi prison
http://ift.tt/1LauTaI

IS releasing their fellow terrorists from the Ramadi jail
Source: Rudaw

IS: “Thanks Obama!”
Source: The ISIS Study Group

They have more than enough personnel to operate these now after emptying out the jail
Source: The ISIS Study Group

Suleimani isn’t playing. Our sources within the Kurdish Peshmerga have informed us that an Iranian Artillery Battalion (as in the Iranian military, possibly a Basij Resistance Force unit) was moved within a few kilometers of Bayji and the Badr Organization sent additional personnel to bolster the PMC contingent located at COP Speicher. This should be a good indicator that he views Bayji as the top priority. The logic is simple – take over Bayji and cut off the flow of supplies to the other IS units and you have a much easier time making the push to retake Mosul. However, Bayji is only one of many locations that the combined IA/Qods Force/PMC/Peshmerga forces will need to seize – and HOLD. Other areas that need to be cleared out and controlled is the Zaab Triangle (with an emphasis on Hawijah), the Hamrin Mountains and Tikrit – which still remains unsecured despite IA claims to the contrary. The planned offensive to retake Mosul will fail unless all of these areas are controlled. If this doesn’t happen, then IS will be able to disrupt the ISF supply lines and effectively blunt the attack before they even reach the capital of Baghdadi’s “Caliphate.”

Thus far all attempts to reinforce the ISF garrison isolated at the far corner of the Bayji Oil Refinery (BOR) complex have failed with the refinery experiencing heavy damage to its infrastructure. The Obama administration is trying to maintain the narrative that the IA still “controls” the BOR, but the ugly truth of the matter is that IS fighters control all but a tiny corner that the IA have been pushed into. The BOR itself hasn’t been operational since last year, which has had a significant impact against the Iraqi economy since its the largest refinery in the country capable of producing over 300,000 barrels per day. The refinery in Basra comes in at a distant second with an output of only 160,000 barrels per day. IS hasn’t been impacted by the BOR being rendered inactive since they’ve been maintaining micro-refineries all throughout Ninevah Province going into Northeastern Syria. Laying siege to the BOR and damaging the infrastructure is for one purpose: to deny the Government of Iraq (GOI) revenue that would otherwise go towards keeping their military afloat.

U.S. Military Worries Key Iraqi Refinery Could Fall to Islamic State
http://ift.tt/1GZvdYS

You can see some of the festivities currently underway inside the BOR right here:

The IRGC-Qods Force and their proxies have had a few victories as of late, as demonstrated by Asaib al-Haq (AAH) having killed New Baath Party (NBP) leader Izzat Ibrahim al-Duri during an operation in the Hamrin Mountains. Indeed al-Duri’s death was a great victory, but he was one of many members of the former Saddam regime who fight under the IS umbrella. Suleimani likely views Bayji as an opportunity to improve morale and deal IS a large enough blow to where they’re forced to redirect resources from Anbar to the North in defense of Mosul. If successful, it would also give Suleimani additional leverage over Prime Minister Abadi on influencing how the National Guard will be formed. A lot is riding on this Hail Mary, but will the Qods Force succeed? Had they decided on this course of action before opening up the new front in Yemen it would’ve been possible. That said, the escalating fight on the Arabian Peninsula is sucking up a great deal of resources that would otherwise have been sent to Iraq. We assess that the Northern Iraq offensive to retake Bayji will not result in any meaningful gains. Back in Anbar, IS will likely seize on Suleimani’s focus Northward and increase their OP-Tempo to eliminate the rest of the ISF presence in the Province. Khan al-Baghdadi and Haditha are likely their “50 meter targets” with Habbaniyah to follow. What about al-Asad Airbase? Oh, they’re going to save it for last. Despite what the academics in the Department of State and staff eunuchs at the Pentagon claim, we’re certainly not winning this fight. They better change their current IS and Iran strategies because their both colossal failures…

Confirmed: Izzat al-Douri, former Saddam Hussein deputy, killed by Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq forces
http://ift.tt/1yFcG3H

Izzat Ibrahim al-Duri: His death marks the end of an era
Source: Iraqi News

Friday, 22 May 2015

Suleimani’s Gambit: Bid to Deal Crushing Blow to ISIS in Bayji

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