The media has been in overdrive about the Islamic State’s (IS) move to eliminate the remaining Iraqi Army (IA) and Popular Mobilization Committee (PMC) elements in Anbar Province – but does this mean that a march on Baghdad is imminent? The short answer is no. As we’ve said in our last couple of Iraq-themed articles (“ISIS Moves Against Targets in Haditha, Habbaniyah While Qods Force and Proxies Launch Counterattack,” “Suleimani’s Gambit: Bid to Deal Crushing Blow to ISIS in Bayji” and “JV Team Solidifies Hold on Anbar With Ramadi Purging”), IS doesn’t intend to “overrun” the capital, at least not in the near-term. Why? Three reasons:
1. Most of the government forces are concentrated in Baghdad. With over 90,000 Iraqi Security Force (ISF) personnel defending the capital, IS would have to generate a far greater force than they fielded in the takeovers of Ramadi, Fallujah, Tikrit, and Mosul. US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter recently came out slamming the cowardice that’s endemic throughout the IA. We agree with his assessment, but these forces will stand and fight in Baghdad.
Iraqi forces lack will to fight – Ashton Carter
http://ift.tt/1LyKzW4
SECDEF Ashton Carter: Yes, somebody in the Obama administration actually got something right on the foreign policy arena – Kinda contradicts the administration’s party line of the fight against IS being a “great success,” doesn’t it?
2. So if Carter was right about the IA’s lack of will to fight, then how will they make a stand in Baghdad? The reason is that 80% of the IA are Shia and the capital is a major Shia stronghold these days. The IA does much better in places where they have a great deal of local support, which isn’t Anbar, the Zaab Triangle or Tikrit. Baghdad and the areas South of the city are very difficult for IS to overrun due to the large concentration of Shia in the area. Another thing to keep in mind is that Baghdad is also a major stronghold for the PMCs and Shia militant leaders such as Muqtada al-Sadr aka “Muqi.” Even though the IA will still collapse when faced with a big fight, the Shia militias will hold their ground. Regarding the Shia militias, they’re no different than IS when it comes to martyrdom and brutality.
Muqi and his boys aren’t about to let IS roll into Baghdad in force without a fight
Source: Corbis
3. Since the majority of the government forces and Shia proxy forces are defending Baghdad, the rest of the country is vulnerable to being overrun by IS. Team Baghdadi views the seizing of terrain to expand the “Caliphate” as a bigger priority than seizing control of the Iraqi capital. The reason is obvious – seizing other major population centers and the critical infrastructure will help sustain the Islamic State. For IS, it makes more sense for them to continue having their sleeper cells conducting attacks inside the city while the front-line forces put pressure on the government by launching major operations in places like Karmah, Ramadi and al-Asad Airbase.
Source: CNN
ISIS Moves Against Targets in Haditha, Habbaniyah While Qods Force and Proxies Launch Counterattack
http://ift.tt/1LDInMt
Suleimani’s Gambit: Bid to Deal Crushing Blow to ISIS in Bayji
http://ift.tt/1HINtJo
“JV Team” Solidifies Hold on Anbar With Ramadi Purging
http://ift.tt/1doWRFn
Our “Fortress Baghdad” series laid out the IS strategy of relying on sleeper cells to conduct VBIED/SVEST attacks throughout the city. That strategy remains their preferred method of targeting the capital as it keeps the ISF/PMC off-balance and forces them to maintain their “circled wagon” posture. By doing this, the Government of Iraq (GOI) has kept manpower and resources from supporting efforts in Anbar and Northern Iraq that would’ve been crucial to the success of those operations. You’ve all seen the result of this with the fall of Anbar and failure to secure Tikrit, Bayji and the areas South of Kirkuk. IS won’t make a major push for Baghdad until after they’ve taken over the rest of the country – which is being greatly facilitated by the GOI keeping the majority of its forces in Baghdad. In the meantime, the sleeper cells will continue with their current OP-Tempo while groups of fighters get sent to the city to target specific neighborhoods in the city where the Sunni demographic is dominant. Those neighborhoods will be used to stage follow-on operations targeting locations such as Sadr City and the Green Zone – the US Embassy, specifically. We suspect that IS may choose to wait until a sandstorm hits before they move on the Embassy, fully knowing that military aircraft are grounded in bad weather. The far more immediate threat will likely come from IS conducting a high-profile attack on a government building. We assess that they will probably look to target the prisons in either Baghdad or Nasiriyah to capitalize on previous jail breaks conducted in Mosul and Ramadi. That said, the earliest they might target the prisons will be next month during Ramadan.
Links to Other Articles:
Islamic State Seizes Town of Khan al-Baghdadi, Threatens US Marines at Ayn al-Asad
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ISIS Increases Pressure on Baghdad’s Green Zone – is the US Government Taking Notice?
http://ift.tt/17966oV
Shia Militias To Reinforce al-Asad Airbase – IA On The Verge of Collapse
Links to Other Articles:
State of the Iraqi Air Force and Special Operations Forces
Update on the Baghdad and Kobane Fronts
The Islamic State Moves Into Abu Ghraib Within Striking Distance of Baghdad
US Begins Using Apache Attack Helicopters Against ISIS Northeast Of Fallujah
Baghdad Update As Of 13 AUG 14
Fighting Around Baghdad Intensifies
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