On 02 FEB we first discussed in our piece titled “GOI Has Big Plans to Retake The Country From ISIS – But Can They pull it Off???,” the IA’s plans to conduct operations to retake Bayji, Ramadi, Fallujah, Tikrit and Mosul from the Islamic State (IS)- and the great difficulty such an endeavor would present given the current problems plaguing the IA and in terms of manpower and stressed resources. Today, the Pentagon has confirmed our suspicions that an effort is underway to retake Mosul. Recent reporting over the past 18 hrs has implied that the Jordanian and UAE Air Forces may be providing close air support to the IA ground forces that will participate in the operation. The ongoing Jordanian air campaign has consisted of 56 sorties launched since last Thursday and expected to continue in the near-term, although we don’t assess that the Jordanians will be able to continue at the current OP-Tempo due to maintenance issues. This campaign appears to be “prepping the battlefield” for the IA ground force.
Jordan pounds IS as Iraqi ground offensive looms
GOI Has Big Plans to Retake The Country From ISIS – But Can They Pull it Off???
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Jordan Steps Up Airstrikes Against ISIS, Egypt Launches New Sinai Offensive
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Rage of The King: Jordan Strikes Back
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Jordanian Air Force F-16s: bathing IS fighters with flames
Source: f-16.net
As we’ve previously stated, the past year has seen the complete collapse of four out of 14 IA divisions with seven having experienced over 40% attrition in their ranks. The IA has been busy replenishing their ranks, but this effort has pushed the force’s demographic to 80% of the total force being composed of Shia. Also, the majority of the IA is dedicated to the defense of Baghdad. Currently, there’s an estimated 3,000 IA troops available for offensive operations, which will make retaking any of the above-mentioned population centers increasingly difficult – especially Mosul since that would take tes of thousands more troops to seize and hold the city. We assess that its unlikely the GOI will reallocate forces dedicated to Baghdad’s defense to be sent to reinforce the assault force. This possibility becomes even less likely after this weekend’s bombings that were executed throughout the capital hours after the lifting of the curfew that has been in effect since the start of OIF. As a result, the IRGC-Qods Force has recommended that the IA rely more on the Ramazan Corps-backed Shia militias to spearhead the assault like they did in the operations to retake Amerli and Jalula. The increased participation of the Shia militias in such an ethnically-diverse city as Mosul will likely further the sectarian flames as they will have no problem with gunning down human shields (who will likely be Christians, Yazidis and other Sunnis) to engage IS fighters. The IS propaganda machine probably already has a plan to launch an IO (Information Operations) campaign in the event of an IA assault on Mosul.
Bombs kill at least 40 as Baghdad sees end of decade-old curfew
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Known Terrorists Among the Beneficiaries of US Assistance in Iraq
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Siege of Amerli Finally Broken
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The Siege of Amerli
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Jalula Update as of 24 NOV 14
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Joint-Counter Offensive Launched to Drive ISIS From Jalula, Iraq
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IP checkpoint in Baghdad
Source: arabnews.com
So what would a counter-offensive to retake Mosul look like? Our sources in the country have reported that IS appears to be planning for a protracted defense of Mosul, likely due to the city’s role as a major support hub and symbolic importance to the terror organization. Since the mid-JUN 14 capture of Mosul, IS has been stockpiling weapons in and around the city to include anti-tank weapons, heavy machine-guns, SAMS and armored vehicles. Most of these weapons were confiscated from overrun IA and Syrian Army installations. The city itself is ringed with a series of tank ditches, tunnels and bunkers. There was a barrier that IS had begun building, but as of this writing there’s only a small segment of it completed in the Northwestern part of the city. We assess that IS may be using the city’s industrial infrastructure to produce IEDs and VBIEDs to be placed along the avenues of approach similar to the defense measures we saw during the second Battle of Fallujah and USMC’s Operation Steel Curtain that cleaned out the Euphrates River Valley. We wouldn’t be surprised to see IS also go back to using flanking and rear attacks in complex attacks designed to confuse advancing IA columns. However, we fully expect the IS fighters in the ground to attack the IA by using confiscated IA uniforms and vehicles (we’ve even heard reports that IS units on the ground have confiscated IA radios) to get in close to advancing forces and to gain access to command centers set up in the area to conduct attacks similar to the one that occurred in SEP 14 at Camp Saqlawiyah. This will cause greater confusion among the IA and potentially isolate whole units. Civilians are sure to be used as human shields. IS will then likely use the opportunities created by the IA’s confusion, rigidness and poor-leadership to regain the initiative.
Islamic State Flips Script: Irregular Warfare Redux
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IS will also increase attacks along the main Mosul to Baghdad route to further stress the IA’s lines of communication. The ISOF personnel participating in this operation will be stretched to the breaking point after being forced to retake ground the IA will be sure to give back to IS over the course of the operation as resources become harder to come by as supply lines face more pressure. Its also unlikely that the IA will be able to successfully encircle the city and cut off IS’ supply lines. We also don’t see the airstrikes being very effective against targets inside the city due to the use of human shields. Even with assistance from the KRG Peshmerga, this will be a slow, hard slog that will be fought street to street.
As the offensive drags on, the Jordanian Air Force will begin to start feeling the strains of sustaining their current OP-Tempo. The increased anti-air threat in the area will also be a cause for concern. Should a Jordanian fighter jet get shot down, we could very well see Jordanian SOF deployed to secure the site (we don’t think they’d trust the Iraqis or Shia militias to do the job). Meanwhile, we may see IS accelerate their plans elsewhere with elements launching more attacks in Baghdad, Saudi Arabia and Jordan itself to keep the allied nations off-balanced. And so it begins…
Links to Other Articles:
Trouble in Jordan and ISIS-Jordanian Connections
ISIS: Regained the Initiative in Northern Iraq
Iraqi Army Facing Heavy Resistance in Anbar: Counter-Offensive Stalls
Shia Militias Sent to Reinforce al-Asad Airbase: IA on Verge of Collapse
On The Collapse of The IA in Northern Iraq
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