The Islamic State has seized the key town of Khan al-Baghdadi near the strategic airbase of Ayn al-Asad in al-Anbar Province near Hit. There are some 320 US Marines stationed at the facility along with Special Operations Forces training the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). Islamic State has been battling for control of the area around al-Baghdadi for some time. Ayn al-Asad is the last major installation the Iraqi government has in al-Anbar Province.
Khan Al-Baghdadi is approximately 85 kilometers northwest of Ramadi and about 35 kilometers northwest of Hit. According to the district manager of the district about 90% of Khan al-Baghdadi’s district is now under control of the Islamic State. It is roughly 9 kilometers from Khan al-Baghdadi to Ayn al-Asad Air Base. The town is also about 50 Kilometers west of Tharthar Lake.
Ayn al-Asad Air Base
Source: The Institute for the Study of War
Ayn al-Asad is of strategic importance to the Islamic State, the ISF and the United States. The base is one of the last major strongholds still held by the IA in the province after the fall of other installations and district headquarters such as Camp Saqlawiyah back in September 2014. The Islamic State would want to seize the base due to its weapons and the fact that there is a significant US presence there. The capture of any US personnel let alone several hundred would be a propaganda bonanza that Islamic State would go crazy over. In many of the instances where the Islamic State had captured a major installation a gruesome video would shortly appear of the captured military personnel being executed.
Ayn al-Asad is of great importance to the government of Iraq (GOI) for multiple reasons. It is a major facility to conduct training, logistics, operations and it is also a symbol of the government presence in al-Anbar. Losing it to the Islamic State would be an embarrassing and devastating setback. The loss of a key facility being used by US military personnel to retrain ISF and try to reinvigorate their fight against Islamic State would literally crush the already weak morale that the ISF have. This would also have a devastating effect on the upcoming push to drive Islamic State out of Mosul as it would cripple the units with an almost paralysis of epidemic fear that would surely spread. There is also training being conducted with local tribal militias.
For the United States, the defense of Ayn al-Asad must hold at all cost. This is the Helms Deep of this fight if Ayn al-Asad fell with hundreds of US military personnel trapped inside the results would be catastrophic militarily and the Information Operations campaign of the Islamic State would set ablaze like it had not been seen to date. The US must take every available precaution to ensure the safety and security of the US forces at Ayn al-Asad to prevent even the appearance of it seeming to be in any danger of falling.
The base has come under pressure before back in December when Islamic State militants attempted to launch an offensive on the base but were repelled before they could really make an effort. The base has come under indirect fire at least once in recent months also. So, it is likely that any attempt by Islamic State to push an offensive on the base would be met with heavy resistance from the US personnel on the installation and by a devastating aerial bombardment far beyond what we saw in Kobane.
The US has conducted some airstrikes in the area around the town of Khan al-Baghdadi which has at least temporarily halted any advance towards Ayn al-Asad. Islamic State fighters still hold the council headquarters in the town. Some reports indicate that a group of militants attempted to attack the base, but were unable to break into it. Likely an attempt to test to the bases defenses as it is pretty well fortified. The US Marines there are training the Iraqi 7th Division at the base.
We had written a previous article about the desire of the Islamic State to seize control of Ayn al-Asad Air Base and the Iraqi Government sending Shi’a militia to aid in the defense of the base back in November: Shia Militias Sent To Reinforce al-Asad Airbase-IA On Verge Of Collapse
Assessment: US forces need to beef up assets to safeguard and ensure security of al-Assad Air Base. As we have discussed the significance of the base is vitally important to all three elements in the fight. The Islamic State would gain not only weapons but the strategic victory of capturing American forces if the base fell and the I/O campaign that would follow and the “bargaining” that they would offer in exchange for “peace” with President Obama would be a farce as we’ve seen in every other case of their offers of exchange. Immediately, step up airstrikes around Khan al-Baghdadi and not only degrade the Islamic State presence, but absolutely destroy it. Send out the ISF to sweep up the remains as confidence targets so they become more assured in their ability to defeat their enemy. It is likely that the US would push major assets to protect Ayn al-Asad should Islamic State make another attempt at it such as it did in December 2014. That attempt was shut down rather quickly.
Islamic State will seriously be eyeing the potential prize of Ayn al-Asad for all of the reasons mentioned above. The I/O campaign alone would bolster their recruiter efforts exponentially at the site of captured Americans. There is no negotiation with these people Mr. President, you have taken a step in the right direction, but we also strongly urge that you bring all of our coalition partners together and define the collective strategy as our nation and other nations did in order to achieve victory in WWII. We need that same type of leadership today and our allies need it as well, but they also must leaders in this fight. Something else to consider is that Islamic State has began moving some heavy assets in Syria and those assets could possibly be moving towards al-Anbar, if those assets are moving towards al-Anbar it would be wise for them to be interdicted before they arrive as they would assuredly be used in any offensive on Ayn al-Asad. The coming several days or weeks will be indicative of what Islamic State intends to do. If anything starts to occur from the west of the base then that would likely confirm those heavy weapons that were moved in Syria recently were not moved as a result of a defeat at Kobane, but as a result of a shifting of strategy towards al-Anbar once again.
Source Articles:
Islamic State Advances Near Iraq Base Where US Advisers are Stationed
ISIS Fighters Reportedly Seize Parts of Iraqi Town, Threatening US Marine Base
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